1
CINTEN at CIN
81.6%UPCOMING
2
JAXIND at JAX
75.1%UPCOMING
3
NENE at MIA
74.3%UPCOMING
Week Progress0 of 14 final
0 Final0 In Progress14 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.2.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 7Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 8 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
BUF -3.5BAL at BUF
57.7%UPCOMING
2
CHI +3.0CHI at SEA
53.2%UPCOMING
3
DAL -6.5ARI at DAL
52.4%UPCOMING
1
UNDER 46.5IND at JAX
54.6%UPCOMING
2
UNDER 54.5ARI at DAL
53.9%UPCOMING
3
UNDER 48.5CAR at GB
52.2%UPCOMING
WEEKLY BOARD
14 Games · 14 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
ThuThu, Oct 29, 7:15 PM CDT
CAR3-3-0@GB4-3-0WIN PROBABILITYGB 60.2%MODEL SCORE22.2–25.5POINT SPREADCAR · 51.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.2%TOP PICKGB60.2%
CAR3-3-0@GB4-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CAR 22.2—GB 25.5
MONEYLINE
GB WIN (60.2%)
MODELGB -185
SPORTSBOOKGB -185
TOTAL
UNDER 47.7 (52.2%)
MODEL47.7
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 48.5
SPREAD
CAR +3.2 (51.2%)
MODEL+3.2
SPORTSBOOKCAR +3.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
GB is at home. The model favors GB at 60.2% and projects CAR 22.2–GB 25.5. Key injuries: Travis Glover (OT, questionable), Akayleb Evans (CB, questionable), Devonte Wyatt (DT, questionable), Aaron Banks (G, questionable). CAR last 3: W 32–26 vs DET, W 25–14 vs PHI, L 13–43 vs TB. GB last 3: W 31–7 vs CHI, W 23–13 vs DAL, L 17–20 vs DET. Weather: 54°F, gusts 13 mph, precipitation 13%; model total adjustment -0.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.2 vs +3.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
BAL4-3-0@BUF5-1-0WIN PROBABILITYBUF 62.9%MODEL SCORE23.9–29.3POINT SPREADBUF · 57.7%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.3%TOP PICKBUF62.9%
BAL4-3-0@BUF5-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BAL 23.9—BUF 29.3
MONEYLINE
BUF WIN (62.9%)
MODELBUF -192
SPORTSBOOKBUF -192
SPREAD
BUF -5.4 (57.7%)
MODEL-5.4
SPORTSBOOKBUF -3.5
TOTAL
UNDER 53.2 (51.3%)
MODEL53.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 53.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BUF is at home. The model favors BUF at 62.9% and projects BAL 23.9–BUF 29.3. Key injuries: Lamar Jackson (QB, questionable), Olaivavega Ioane (G, doubtful), DJ Moore (WR, questionable), Te'Cory Couch (CB, questionable). BAL last 3: W 30–23 vs ATL, L 10–13 vs CLE, L 13–35 vs CIN. BUF last 3: L 26–29 vs NE, W 37–34 vs LAR, W 33–30 vs LV. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.4 vs +3.5 (1.9-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.9 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.9Context Adjustment +0.5Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.9 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.9 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.5 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
TEN1-6-0@CIN4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYCIN 81.6%MODEL SCORE18.1–28.1POINT SPREADCIN · 48.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.0%TOP PICKCIN81.6%
TEN1-6-0@CIN4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
TEN 18.1—CIN 28.1
MONEYLINE
CIN WIN (81.6%)
MODELCIN -650
SPORTSBOOKCIN -650
TOTAL
UNDER 46.3 (51.0%)
MODEL46.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
SPREAD
CIN -10.0 (48.4%)
MODEL-10.0
SPORTSBOOKCIN -10.0
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CIN is at home. The model favors CIN at 81.6% and projects TEN 18.1–CIN 28.1. Key injuries: Kyle Dugger (S, out), Calvin Ridley (WR, questionable), Erick All Jr. (TE, questionable), Tyjae Spears (RB, questionable). TEN last 3: L 3–26 vs HOU, W 26–20 vs IND, L 24–27 vs CLE. CIN last 3: L 17–22 vs JAX, W 31–24 vs MIA, W 35–13 vs BAL. Weather: 64°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 40%; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +10.0 vs +10.0 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
ARI2-5-0@DAL3-4-0WIN PROBABILITYDAL 72.0%MODEL SCORE23.1–30.2POINT SPREADDAL · 52.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 53.9%TOP PICKDAL72.0%
ARI2-5-0@DAL3-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ARI 23.1—DAL 30.2
MONEYLINE
DAL WIN (72.0%)
MODELDAL -325
SPORTSBOOKDAL -325
TOTAL
UNDER 53.3 (53.9%)
MODEL53.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 54.5
SPREAD
DAL -7.1 (52.4%)
MODEL-7.1
SPORTSBOOKDAL -6.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DAL is at home. The model favors DAL at 72.0% and projects ARI 23.1–DAL 30.2. Key injuries: Carson Beck (QB, questionable), Drew Shelton (OT, questionable), KaVontae Turpin (WR, questionable), Max Melton (CB, questionable). ARI last 3: L 21–45 vs DET, W 18–16 vs LAR, L 16–30 vs DEN. DAL last 3: L 16–24 vs TB, L 13–23 vs GB, W 38–21 vs PHI. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.1 vs +6.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.8Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
MIN6-0-0@
DET4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYDET 58.3%MODEL SCORE21.7–24.6POINT SPREADMIN · 48.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.9%TOP PICKDET58.3%
MIN6-0-0@DET4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIN 21.7—DET 24.6
MONEYLINE
DET WIN (58.3%)
MODELDET -170
SPORTSBOOKDET -170
TOTAL
UNDER 46.3 (50.9%)
MODEL46.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
SPREAD
MIN +2.9 (48.2%)
MODEL+2.9
SPORTSBOOKMIN +3.0
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DET is at home. The model favors DET at 58.3% and projects MIN 21.7–DET 24.6. Key injuries: Kerby Joseph (S, out), Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, questionable), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, questionable), Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, questionable). MIN last 3: W 15–10 vs MIA, W 23–13 vs NO, W 16–10 vs IND. DET last 3: L 26–32 vs CAR, W 45–21 vs ARI, W 20–17 vs GB. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.9 vs +3.0 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
LV3-4-0@
NYJ2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYLV 49.1%MODEL SCORE23.4–22.3POINT SPREADNYJ · 51.5%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.2%TOP PICKNYJ51.5%
LV3-4-0@NYJ2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LV 23.4—NYJ 22.3
SPREAD
NYJ +1.1 (51.5%)
MODEL+1.1
SPORTSBOOKNYJ +1.5
TOTAL
OVER 45.6 (50.2%)
MODEL45.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 45.5
MONEYLINE
LV WIN (49.1%)
MODELLV -110
SPORTSBOOKLV -110
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYJ is at home. The model favors LV at 49.1% and projects LV 23.4–NYJ 22.3. Key injuries: Max Mitchell (OT, questionable), Joseph Ossai (DE, questionable), Patrick Johnson (DE, questionable), Dylan Parham (G, questionable). LV last 3: L 17–45 vs NE, L 30–33 vs BUF, L 21–35 vs LAR. NYJ last 3: W 17–12 vs CLE, L 19–26 vs NE, L 25–28 vs MIA. Weather: 66°F, gusts 5 mph, precipitation 1%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.1 vs -1.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
CLE5-2-0@
PIT5-2-0WIN PROBABILITYPIT 60.1%MODEL SCORE18.1–21.8POINT SPREADPIT · 50.6%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.0%TOP PICKPIT60.1%
CLE5-2-0@PIT5-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CLE 18.1—PIT 21.8
MONEYLINE
PIT WIN (60.1%)
MODELPIT -180
SPORTSBOOKPIT -180
TOTAL
OVER 39.9 (51.0%)
MODEL39.9
SPORTSBOOKOVER 39.5
SPREAD
PIT -3.6 (50.6%)
MODEL-3.6
SPORTSBOOKPIT -3.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PIT is at home. The model favors PIT at 60.1% and projects CLE 18.1–PIT 21.8. Key injuries: Tytus Howard (OT, questionable), Ben Skowronek (WR, questionable), Brandin Echols (CB, questionable), Myles Harden (CB, questionable). CLE last 3: L 12–17 vs NYJ, W 13–10 vs BAL, W 27–24 vs TEN. PIT last 3: W 34–22 vs IND, W 26–19 vs TB, W 16–10 vs NO. Weather: 66°F, gusts 8 mph, precipitation 25%; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.6 vs +3.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
ATL3-4-0@
TB2-5-0WIN PROBABILITYTB 54.1%MODEL SCORE22.2–24.6POINT SPREADATL · 50.5%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.0%TOP PICKTB54.1%
ATL3-4-0@TB2-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ATL 22.2—TB 24.6
MONEYLINE
TB WIN (54.1%)
MODELTB -135
SPORTSBOOKTB -135
TOTAL
OVER 46.8 (51.0%)
MODEL46.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 46.5
SPREAD
ATL +2.4 (50.5%)
MODEL+2.4
SPORTSBOOKATL +2.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TB is at home. The model favors TB at 54.1% and projects ATL 22.2–TB 24.6. Key injuries: Luke Goedeke (OT, questionable), Emeka Egbuka (WR, questionable), Olamide Zaccheaus (WR, questionable), Avieon Terrell (CB, questionable). ATL last 3: L 23–30 vs BAL, L 23–31 vs CHI, W 29–20 vs SF. TB last 3: W 24–16 vs DAL, L 19–26 vs PIT, W 43–13 vs CAR. Weather: 84°F, gusts 9 mph, precipitation 63%; model total adjustment -0.5. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.4 vs +2.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.5 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CST
IND2-5-0@JAX4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYJAX 75.1%MODEL SCORE18.6–26.5POINT SPREADJAX · 51.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 54.6%TOP PICKJAX75.1%
IND2-5-0@JAX4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
IND 18.6—JAX 26.5
MONEYLINE
JAX WIN (75.1%)
MODELJAX -395
SPORTSBOOKJAX -395
TOTAL
UNDER 45.0 (54.6%)
MODEL45.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
SPREAD
JAX -7.9 (51.9%)
MODEL-7.9
SPORTSBOOKJAX -7.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
JAX is at home. The model favors JAX at 75.1% and projects IND 18.6–JAX 26.5. Key injuries: Montaric Brown (CB, questionable), Sauce Gardner (CB, questionable), Anthony Gould (WR, questionable), Antonio Johnson (S, questionable). IND last 3: L 22–34 vs PIT, L 20–26 vs TEN, L 10–16 vs MIN. JAX last 3: W 22–17 vs CIN, W 19–17 vs PHI, L 31–34 vs HOU. Weather: 78°F, gusts 21 mph, precipitation 54%; model total adjustment -1.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.9 vs +7.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment +0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-1.0 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 3:05 PM CST
LAC0-6-0@
LAR3-4-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 70.5%MODEL SCORE18.8–25.7POINT SPREADLAR · 52.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.2%TOP PICKLAR70.5%
LAC0-6-0@LAR3-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAC 18.8—LAR 25.7
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (70.5%)
MODELLAR -290
SPORTSBOOKLAR -290
SPREAD
LAR -7.0 (52.0%)
MODEL-7.0
SPORTSBOOKLAR -6.5
TOTAL
OVER 44.5 (50.2%)
MODEL44.5
SPORTSBOOKOVER 44.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAR is at home. The model favors LAR at 70.5% and projects LAC 18.8–LAR 25.7. Key injuries: Trent McDuffie (CB, questionable), Ladd McConkey (WR, questionable), Brenen Thompson (WR, questionable), Rodney Shelley (CB, questionable). LAC last 3: L 23–30 vs SEA, L 17–23 vs DEN, L 6–22 vs KC. LAR last 3: L 34–37 vs BUF, L 16–18 vs ARI, W 35–21 vs LV. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.0 vs +6.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment -0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CST
KC5-1-0@
DEN5-2-0WIN PROBABILITYKC 51.5%MODEL SCORE21.3–20.2POINT SPREADDEN · 51.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.3%TOP PICKKC51.5%
KC5-1-0@DEN5-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
KC 21.3—DEN 20.2
MONEYLINE
KC WIN (51.5%)
MODELKC -125
SPORTSBOOKKC -125
SPREAD
DEN +1.2 (51.4%)
MODEL+1.2
SPORTSBOOKDEN +1.5
TOTAL
UNDER 41.5 (50.3%)
MODEL41.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 41.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DEN is at home. The model favors KC at 51.5% and projects KC 21.3–DEN 20.2. Key injuries: Jaylon Moore (OT, questionable), Pat Surtain II (CB, questionable), Jaylen Waddle (WR, questionable), Zach Allen (DE, questionable). KC last 3: W 30–27 vs LV, W 22–6 vs LAC, L 3–20 vs SEA. DEN last 3: W 23–17 vs LAC, W 17–14 vs SEA, W 30–16 vs ARI. Weather: 61°F, gusts 10 mph, precipitation 2%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.2 vs -1.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 3:25 PM CSTNE4-3-0@
MIA1-5-0WIN PROBABILITYNE 74.3%MODEL SCORE25.9–18.9POINT SPREADMIA · 52.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.8%TOP PICKNE74.3%
NE4-3-0@MIA1-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NE 25.9—MIA 18.9
MONEYLINE
NE WIN (74.3%)
MODELNE -395
SPORTSBOOKNE -395
SPREAD
MIA +6.9 (52.2%)
MODEL+6.9
SPORTSBOOKMIA +7.5
TOTAL
OVER 44.8 (50.8%)
MODEL44.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 44.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
MIA is at home. The model favors NE at 74.3% and projects NE 25.9–MIA 18.9. Key injuries: Reese Taylor (CB, questionable), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, questionable), Karon Prunty (CB, questionable), Ben Brown (C, questionable). NE last 3: W 45–17 vs LV, W 26–19 vs NYJ, L 24–30 vs CHI. MIA last 3: L 10–15 vs MIN, L 24–31 vs CIN, W 28–25 vs NYJ. Weather: 83°F, gusts 12 mph, precipitation 51%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.9 vs -7.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
SunSun, Nov 1, 7:20 PM CST
PHI2-5-0@
WSH1-4-1WIN PROBABILITYWSH 62.5%MODEL SCORE18.4–22.4POINT SPREADPHI · 52.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.8%TOP PICKWSH62.5%
PHI2-5-0@WSH1-4-1LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PHI 18.4—WSH 22.4
MONEYLINE
WSH WIN (62.5%)
MODELWSH -205
SPORTSBOOKWSH -205
SPREAD
PHI +4.0 (52.0%)
MODEL+4.0
SPORTSBOOKPHI +4.5
TOTAL
OVER 40.8 (50.8%)
MODEL40.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 40.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
WSH is at home. The model favors WSH at 62.5% and projects PHI 18.4–WSH 22.4. Key injuries: Marcus Mariota (QB, questionable), Terry McLaurin (WR, out), Charles Omenihu (DE, questionable), Dontayvion Wicks (WR, questionable). PHI last 3: L 17–19 vs JAX, L 14–25 vs CAR, L 21–38 vs DAL. WSH last 3: L 13–30 vs IND, T 27–27 vs NYG, L 17–23 vs SF. Weather: 58°F, gusts 8 mph, precipitation 7%; model total adjustment -0.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +4.0 vs +4.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.8Context Adjustment +0.8Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.8 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
MonMon, Nov 2, 7:15 PM CSTCHI5-2-0@
SEA4-3-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 56.9%MODEL SCORE22.3–24.1POINT SPREADCHI · 53.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.2%TOP PICKSEA56.9%
CHI5-2-0@SEA4-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CHI 22.3—SEA 24.1
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (56.9%)
MODELSEA -166
SPORTSBOOKSEA -166
SPREAD
CHI +1.7 (53.2%)
MODEL+1.7
SPORTSBOOKCHI +3.0
TOTAL
UNDER 46.4 (50.2%)
MODEL46.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
WHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SEA is at home. The model favors SEA at 56.9% and projects CHI 22.3–SEA 24.1. Key injuries: Drew Lock (QB, questionable), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, out), Chazz Surratt (LB, questionable), Drake Thomas (LB, questionable). CHI last 3: L 7–31 vs GB, W 31–23 vs ATL, W 30–24 vs NE. SEA last 3: L 29–32 vs SF, L 14–17 vs DEN, W 20–3 vs KC. Weather: 51°F, gusts 4 mph, precipitation 1%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.7 vs +3.0 (1.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.8Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.