1
SFMIA at SF
90.1%WIN
2
TBCLE at TB
79.1%LOSS
3
PHIPHI at TEN
77.6%WIN
Week Progress16 of 16 final
16 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Model Previewv2.0.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Week 2 Preview Results
Week 2Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF / DET | BUF -5.5 (-105)DET +5.5 (-115) | Over 54.5 (-118)Under 54.5 (-102) | BUF -238DET +195 |
| ATL / CAR | ATL +2.5 (-102)CAR -2.5 (-118) | Over 43.5 (-110)Under 43.5 (-110) | ATL +120CAR -142 |
| BAL / NO | BAL -8.5 (-105)NO +8.5 (-115) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | BAL -360NO +285 |
| TB / CLE | TB -8.5 (-105)CLE +8.5 (-115) | Over 41.5 (-108)Under 41.5 (-112) | TB -425CLE +330 |
| TEN / PHI | TEN +7 (-105)PHI -7 (-115) | Over 39.5 (-112)Under 39.5 (-108) | TEN +260PHI -325 |
| HOU / CIN | HOU -3 (-102)CIN +3 (-118) | Over 45.5 (-110)Under 45.5 (-110) | HOU -148CIN +124 |
| NE / PIT | NE -4.5 (-118)PIT +4.5 (-102) | Over 41.5 (-105)Under 41.5 (-115) | NE -218PIT +180 |
| CHI / MIN | CHI -4.5 (-112)MIN +4.5 (-108) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | CHI -218MIN +180 |
| NYJ / GB | NYJ +3.5 (-112)GB -3.5 (-108) | Over 44.5 (-110)Under 44.5 (-110) | NYJ +154GB -185 |
| LAC / LV | LAC -6.5 (-122)LV +6.5 (+102) | Over 43.5 (-110)Under 43.5 (-110) | LAC -325LV +260 |
| DEN / JAX | DEN -2.5 (-115)JAX +2.5 (-105) | Over 45.5 (-110)Under 45.5 (-110) | DEN -148JAX +124 |
| ARI / SEA | ARI +3.5 (+100)SEA -3.5 (-120) | Over 40.5 (-115)Under 40.5 (-105) | ARI +180SEA -218 |
| SF / MIA | SF -12.5 (-110)MIA +12.5 (-110) | Over 44.5 (-115)Under 44.5 (-105) | SF -850MIA +575 |
| DAL / WSH | DAL -4.5 (-105)WSH +4.5 (-115) | Over 51.5 (-110)Under 51.5 (-110) | DAL -225WSH +185 |
| KC / IND | KC -6 (-108)IND +6 (-112) | Over 46.5 (-102)Under 46.5 (-118) | KC -265IND +215 |
| LAR / NYG | LAR -7 (+102)NYG +7 (-122) | Over 47.5 (-108)Under 47.5 (-112) | LAR -310NYG +250 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 2 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
ARI +3.5SEA at ARI
56.9%LOSS
2
HOU -2.5CIN at HOU
54.0%LOSS
3
CHI -4.5MIN at CHI
53.9%LOSS
1
UNDER 48.5MIN at CHI
54.8%WIN
2
OVER 40.5SEA at ARI
52.1%LOSS
3
OVER 41.5PIT at NE
51.9%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
16 Display-Only Games
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM CDT
DET1-1-0@
BUF2-0-0WIN PROBABILITYBUF 67.9%FINAL / MODEL31–41 / 24.7–29.7POINT SPREADDET · 51.7%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.4%TOP PICKBUF67.9%
DET1-1-0@BUF2-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DET 24.7—BUF 29.7
MONEYLINE
BUF WIN (67.9%)
MODELBUF —
SPORTSBOOKBUF —
✓ WONSPREAD
DET +5.0 (51.7%)
MODEL+5.0
SPORTSBOOKDET +5.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 54.4 (50.4%)
MODEL54.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 54.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BUF is at home. The model favors BUF at 67.9% and projects DET 24.7–BUF 29.7. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.0 vs +5.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
CAR1-1-0@
ATL0-2-0WIN PROBABILITYCAR 63.9%FINAL / MODEL34–3 / 23.1–20.2POINT SPREADCAR · 51.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.7%TOP PICKCAR63.9%
CAR1-1-0@ATL0-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CAR 23.1—ATL 20.2
MONEYLINE
CAR WIN (63.9%)
MODELCAR —
SPORTSBOOKCAR —
✓ WONSPREAD
CAR -2.9 (51.9%)
MODEL-2.9
SPORTSBOOKCAR -2.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 43.3 (50.7%)
MODEL43.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 43.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ATL is at home. The model favors CAR at 63.9% and projects CAR 23.1–ATL 20.2. Injuries account for a -0.9-point margin adjustment. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.9 vs -2.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.9Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.9 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
MIN2-0-0@CHI1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYCHI 68.9%FINAL / MODEL9–3 / 20.7–26.2POINT SPREADCHI · 53.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 54.8%TOP PICKCHI68.9%
MIN2-0-0@CHI1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIN 20.7—CHI 26.2
MONEYLINE
CHI WIN (68.9%)
MODELCHI —
SPORTSBOOKCHI —
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 46.9 (54.8%)
MODEL46.9
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 48.5
✓ WONSPREAD
CHI -5.5 (53.9%)
MODEL-5.5
SPORTSBOOKCHI -4.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CHI is at home. The model favors CHI at 68.9% and projects MIN 20.7–CHI 26.2. Injuries account for a +0.7-point margin adjustment. Weather changes the projected total by -1.4 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.5 vs +4.5 (1.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.7Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-1.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.7 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDTPHI2-0-0@
TEN0-2-0WIN PROBABILITYPHI 77.6%FINAL / MODEL24–20 / 23.4–16.4POINT SPREADPHI · 51.9%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.4%TOP PICKPHI77.6%
PHI2-0-0@TEN0-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PHI 23.4—TEN 16.4
MONEYLINE
PHI WIN (77.6%)
MODELPHI —
SPORTSBOOKPHI —
✓ WONSPREAD
PHI -7.0 (51.9%)
MODEL-7.0
SPORTSBOOKPHI -7.0
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 39.8 (50.4%)
MODEL39.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 39.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TEN is at home. The model favors PHI at 77.6% and projects PHI 23.4–TEN 16.4. Weather changes the projected total by -0.1 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -7.0 vs -7.0 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.1 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
PIT1-1-0@NE1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYNE 71.1%FINAL / MODEL3–20 / 18.1–24.1POINT SPREADNE · 52.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.9%TOP PICKNE71.1%
PIT1-1-0@NE1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PIT 18.1—NE 24.1
MONEYLINE
NE WIN (71.1%)
MODELNE —
SPORTSBOOKNE —
✓ WONSPREAD
NE -6.0 (52.0%)
MODEL-6.0
SPORTSBOOKNE -5.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 42.2 (51.9%)
MODEL42.2
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NE is at home. The model favors NE at 71.1% and projects PIT 18.1–NE 24.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +6.0 vs +5.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment +0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
GB1-1-0@
NYJ1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYGB 68.1%FINAL / MODEL20–17 / 24.1–20.1POINT SPREADGB · 52.3%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.0%TOP PICKGB68.1%
GB1-1-0@NYJ1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
GB 24.1—NYJ 20.1
MONEYLINE
GB WIN (68.1%)
MODELGB —
SPORTSBOOKGB —
✓ WONSPREAD
GB -4.0 (52.3%)
MODEL-4.0
SPORTSBOOKGB -3.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 44.2 (51.0%)
MODEL44.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 44.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYJ is at home. The model favors GB at 68.1% and projects GB 24.1–NYJ 20.1. Weather changes the projected total by -0.6 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -4.0 vs -3.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.6 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
CLE1-1-0@TB0-2-0WIN PROBABILITYTB 79.1%FINAL / MODEL23–19 / 16.5–25.0POINT SPREADTB · 50.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.0%TOP PICKTB79.1%
CLE1-1-0@TB0-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CLE 16.5—TB 25.0
MONEYLINE
TB WIN (79.1%)
MODELTB —
SPORTSBOOKTB —
✕ LOSTSPREAD
TB -8.5 (50.0%)
MODEL-8.5
SPORTSBOOKTB -8.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 41.5 (50.0%)
MODEL41.5
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TB is at home. The model favors TB at 79.1% and projects CLE 16.5–TB 25.0. Injuries account for a +0.1-point margin adjustment. Weather changes the projected total by -0.1 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.5 vs +8.5 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.1 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
NO1-1-0@
BAL1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYBAL 75.0%FINAL / MODEL24–17 / 19.6–26.7POINT SPREADNO · 51.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.6%TOP PICKBAL75.0%
NO1-1-0@BAL1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NO 19.6—BAL 26.7
MONEYLINE
BAL WIN (75.0%)
MODELBAL —
SPORTSBOOKBAL —
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NO +7.1 (51.4%)
MODEL+7.1
SPORTSBOOKNO +7.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 46.3 (50.6%)
MODEL46.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
BAL is at home. The model favors BAL at 75.0% and projects NO 19.6–BAL 26.7. Weather changes the projected total by -0.1 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.1 vs +7.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.1 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 12:00 PM CDT
CIN2-0-0@HOU0-2-0WIN PROBABILITYHOU 62.0%FINAL / MODEL20–6 / 21.6–25.1POINT SPREADHOU · 54.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.5%TOP PICKHOU62.0%
CIN2-0-0@HOU0-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CIN 21.6—HOU 25.1
MONEYLINE
HOU WIN (62.0%)
MODELHOU —
SPORTSBOOKHOU —
✕ LOSTSPREAD
HOU -3.5 (54.0%)
MODEL-3.5
SPORTSBOOKHOU -2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 46.7 (50.5%)
MODEL46.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 46.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
HOU is at home. The model favors HOU at 62.0% and projects CIN 21.6–HOU 25.1. Injuries account for a +0.6-point margin adjustment. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.5 vs +2.5 (1.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.6Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.6 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
JAX1-1-0@
DEN1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYDEN 55.5%FINAL / MODEL13–20 / 21.6–23.5POINT SPREADJAX · 52.3%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.1%TOP PICKDEN55.5%
JAX1-1-0@DEN1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
JAX 21.6—DEN 23.5
MONEYLINE
DEN WIN (55.5%)
MODELDEN —
SPORTSBOOKDEN —
✓ WONSPREAD
JAX +1.9 (52.3%)
MODEL+1.9
SPORTSBOOKJAX +2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 45.1 (51.1%)
MODEL45.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 45.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DEN is at home. The model favors DEN at 55.5% and projects JAX 21.6–DEN 23.5. Injuries account for a -0.1-point margin adjustment. Weather changes the projected total by -0.3 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.9 vs +2.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 3:05 PM CDT
LV2-0-0@
LAC0-2-0WIN PROBABILITYLAC 72.2%FINAL / MODEL26–14 / 18.6–24.9POINT SPREADLV · 50.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.0%TOP PICKLAC72.2%
LV2-0-0@LAC0-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LV 18.6—LAC 24.9
MONEYLINE
LAC WIN (72.2%)
MODELLAC —
SPORTSBOOKLAC —
✕ LOSTSPREAD
LV +6.3 (50.4%)
MODEL+6.3
SPORTSBOOKLV +6.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 43.5 (50.0%)
MODEL43.5
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAC is at home. The model favors LAC at 72.2% and projects LV 18.6–LAC 24.9. Injuries account for a -0.1-point margin adjustment. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +6.3 vs +6.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
WSH0-2-0@
DAL1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYDAL 61.9%FINAL / MODEL20–37 / 23.4–26.9POINT SPREADDAL · 50.3%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.7%TOP PICKDAL61.9%
WSH0-2-0@DAL1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
WSH 23.4—DAL 26.9
MONEYLINE
DAL WIN (61.9%)
MODELDAL —
SPORTSBOOKDAL —
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 50.3 (50.7%)
MODEL50.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 50.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
DAL -3.5 (50.3%)
MODEL-3.5
SPORTSBOOKDAL -3.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DAL is at home. The model favors DAL at 61.9% and projects WSH 23.4–DAL 26.9. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.5 vs +3.5 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDTSEA2-0-0@ARI1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 59.0%FINAL / MODEL31–7 / 21.5–19.7POINT SPREADARI · 56.9%OVER / UNDEROVER · 52.1%TOP PICKSEA59.0%
SEA2-0-0@ARI1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
SEA 21.5—ARI 19.7
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (59.0%)
MODELSEA —
SPORTSBOOKSEA —
✓ WONSPREAD
ARI +1.8 (56.9%)
MODEL+1.8
SPORTSBOOKARI +3.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 41.2 (52.1%)
MODEL41.2
SPORTSBOOKOVER 40.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ARI is at home. The model favors SEA at 59.0% and projects SEA 21.5–ARI 19.7. Injuries account for a +2.3-point margin adjustment. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.8 vs -3.5 (1.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.7 ptsInjury Adjustment +2.3Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+2.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 3:25 PM CDT
MIA0-2-0@SF2-0-0WIN PROBABILITYSF 90.1%FINAL / MODEL13–35 / 15.8–29.0POINT SPREADMIA · 51.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.8%TOP PICKSF90.1%
MIA0-2-0@SF2-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIA 15.8—SF 29.0
MONEYLINE
SF WIN (90.1%)
MODELSF —
SPORTSBOOKSF —
✓ WONSPREAD
MIA +13.2 (51.3%)
MODEL+13.2
SPORTSBOOKMIA +13.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 44.8 (50.8%)
MODEL44.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 44.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SF is at home. The model favors SF at 90.1% and projects MIA 15.8–SF 29.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +13.2 vs +13.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Sep 20, 7:20 PM CDT
IND0-2-0@
KC2-0-0WIN PROBABILITYKC 70.6%FINAL / MODEL30–33 / 20.2–26.1POINT SPREADIND · 52.5%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.7%TOP PICKKC70.6%
IND0-2-0@KC2-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
IND 20.2—KC 26.1
MONEYLINE
KC WIN (70.6%)
MODELKC —
SPORTSBOOKKC —
✓ WONSPREAD
IND +5.9 (52.5%)
MODEL+5.9
SPORTSBOOKIND +6.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 46.3 (50.7%)
MODEL46.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
KC is at home. The model favors KC at 70.6% and projects IND 20.2–KC 26.1. Weather changes the projected total by -0.2 points. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.9 vs +6.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Sep 21, 7:15 PM CDT
NYG1-1-0@
LAR1-1-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 76.1%FINAL / MODEL6–28 / 20.5–28.1POINT SPREADLAR · 50.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.2%TOP PICKLAR76.1%
NYG1-1-0@LAR1-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYG 20.5—LAR 28.1
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (76.1%)
MODELLAR —
SPORTSBOOKLAR —
✓ WONSPREAD
LAR -7.6 (50.4%)
MODEL-7.6
SPORTSBOOKLAR -7.0
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 48.6 (50.2%)
MODEL48.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 48.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAR is at home. The model favors LAR at 76.1% and projects NYG 20.5–LAR 28.1. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.6 vs +7.0 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.