1
JAXPHI at JAX
76.9%WIN
2
CINCIN at MIA
74.1%WIN
3
HOUHOU at TEN
73.3%WIN
Week Progress14 of 14 final
14 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.0.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 4Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 5 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
ATL -3.0BAL at ATL
56.4%LOSS
2
GB +1.5CHI at GB
53.9%WIN
3
LAC +3.5DEN at LAC
52.4%LOSS
1
UNDER 47.5CHI at GB
52.3%WIN
2
UNDER 54.5DET at ARI
52.2%LOSS
3
OVER 41.5PHI at JAX
52.1%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
15 Games · 14 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Oct 8, 7:15 PM CDT
TB1-4-0@
DAL2-3-0WIN PROBABILITY—FINAL SCORE24–16POINT SPREAD—OVER / UNDER—TOP PICK——
TB1-4-0@DAL2-3-0Historical schedule entry. No verified pregame prediction is available for this game.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 8:30 AM CDT
PHI2-3-0@JAX4-1-0WIN PROBABILITYJAX 76.9%FINAL / MODEL17–19 / 17.3–24.9POINT SPREADJAX · 50.8%OVER / UNDEROVER · 52.1%TOP PICKJAX76.9%
PHI2-3-0@JAX4-1-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PHI 17.3—JAX 24.9
MONEYLINE
JAX WIN (76.9%)
MODELJAX -380
SPORTSBOOKJAX -380
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 42.2 (52.1%)
MODEL42.2
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
JAX -7.7 (50.8%)
MODEL-7.7
SPORTSBOOKJAX -7.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
JAX is at home. The model favors JAX at 76.9% and projects PHI 17.3–JAX 24.9. Key injuries: CJ Williams (WR, out), Wesley Williams (DE, out), DeVonta Smith (WR, out), Drew Kendall (C, out). PHI last 3: W 24–20 vs TEN, L 7–27 vs CHI, L 20–24 vs LAR. JAX last 3: L 13–20 vs DEN, W 35–6 vs NE, W 22–17 vs CIN. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +7.7 vs +7.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDTCHI3-2-0@GB3-2-0WIN PROBABILITYCHI 50.1%FINAL / MODEL7–31 / 23.6–23.2POINT SPREADGB · 53.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.3%TOP PICKGB53.9%
CHI3-2-0@GB3-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CHI 23.6—GB 23.2
SPREAD
GB +0.5 (53.9%)
MODEL+0.5
SPORTSBOOKGB +1.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 46.8 (52.3%)
MODEL46.8
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 47.5
✓ WONMONEYLINE
CHI WIN (50.1%)
MODELCHI -125
SPORTSBOOKCHI -125
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
GB is at home. The model favors CHI at 50.1% and projects CHI 23.6–GB 23.2. Key injuries: Caleb Williams (QB, questionable), Kyler Gordon (CB, out), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, out), Shemar Turner (DT, out). CHI last 3: L 3–9 vs MIN, W 27–7 vs PHI, W 23–12 vs NYJ. GB last 3: W 20–17 vs NYJ, L 14–35 vs ATL, W 17–14 vs TB. Weather: 74°F, gusts 21 mph; model total adjustment -0.6. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -0.5 vs -1.5 (1.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.8Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.6 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDTHOU1-4-0@
TEN0-5-0WIN PROBABILITYHOU 73.3%FINAL / MODEL26–3 / 22.2–15.5POINT SPREADTEN · 49.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.5%TOP PICKHOU73.3%
HOU1-4-0@TEN0-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
HOU 22.2—TEN 15.5
MONEYLINE
HOU WIN (73.3%)
MODELHOU -355
SPORTSBOOKHOU -355
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 37.7 (50.5%)
MODEL37.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 37.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
TEN +6.6 (49.2%)
MODEL+6.6
SPORTSBOOKTEN +7.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TEN is at home. The model favors HOU at 73.3% and projects HOU 22.2–TEN 15.5. Key injuries: Amani Hooker (S, out), Aireontae Ersery (OT, questionable), Carnell Tate (WR, questionable), David Martin-Robinson (TE, questionable). HOU last 3: L 6–20 vs CIN, L 17–19 vs IND, L 30–34 vs DAL. TEN last 3: L 20–24 vs PHI, L 7–12 vs NYG, L 18–24 vs BAL. Weather: 65°F, gusts 14 mph, precipitation 47%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.6 vs -7.0 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDTCIN3-2-0@
MIA0-5-0WIN PROBABILITYCIN 74.1%FINAL / MODEL31–24 / 25.1–18.3POINT SPREADMIA · 48.8%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.4%TOP PICKCIN74.1%
CIN3-2-0@MIA0-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CIN 25.1—MIA 18.3
MONEYLINE
CIN WIN (74.1%)
MODELCIN -345
SPORTSBOOKCIN -345
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 43.4 (50.4%)
MODEL43.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 43.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
MIA +6.8 (48.8%)
MODEL+6.8
SPORTSBOOKMIA +7.0
— PUSHWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
MIA is at home. The model favors CIN at 74.1% and projects CIN 25.1–MIA 18.3. Key injuries: Storm Duck (CB, out), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, out), Caleb Douglas (WR, out), Justin Joly (TE, out). CIN last 3: W 20–6 vs HOU, L 27–30 vs PIT, L 17–22 vs JAX. MIA last 3: L 13–35 vs SF, L 10–24 vs KC, L 10–15 vs MIN. Weather: 91°F, gusts 14 mph, precipitation 39%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -6.8 vs -7.0 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.3Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.3 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
LV3-2-0@
NE3-2-0WIN PROBABILITYNE 63.4%FINAL / MODEL17–45 / 20.8–24.7POINT SPREADNE · 51.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.1%TOP PICKNE63.4%
LV3-2-0@NE3-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LV 20.8—NE 24.7
MONEYLINE
NE WIN (63.4%)
MODELNE -185
SPORTSBOOKNE -185
✓ WONSPREAD
NE -3.9 (51.4%)
MODEL-3.9
SPORTSBOOKNE -3.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 45.5 (50.1%)
MODEL45.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 45.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NE is at home. The model favors NE at 63.4% and projects LV 20.8–NE 24.7. Key injuries: Karon Prunty (CB, out), Trey Zuhn III (C, out), Jalen Nailor (WR, out), Charles Woods (CB, questionable). LV last 3: W 26–14 vs LAC, W 35–27 vs NO, L 27–30 vs KC. NE last 3: W 20–3 vs PIT, L 6–35 vs JAX, W 29–26 vs BUF. Weather: 59°F, gusts 8 mph, precipitation 1%; model total adjustment -0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.9 vs +3.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
MIN5-0-0@
NO1-4-0WIN PROBABILITYMIN 54.1%FINAL / MODEL23–13 / 21.6–20.1POINT SPREADNO · 50.0%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.7%TOP PICKMIN54.1%
MIN5-0-0@NO1-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
MIN 21.6—NO 20.1
MONEYLINE
MIN WIN (54.1%)
MODELMIN -130
SPORTSBOOKMIN -130
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 41.8 (50.7%)
MODEL41.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
NO +1.5 (50.0%)
MODEL+1.5
SPORTSBOOKNO +1.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NO is at home. The model favors MIN at 54.1% and projects MIN 21.6–NO 20.1. Key injuries: Charles Demmings (CB, out), Jordan Addison (WR, questionable), Justin Jefferson (WR, questionable), Michael Jurgens (C, questionable). MIN last 3: W 9–3 vs CHI, W 23–16 vs TB, W 15–10 vs MIA. NO last 3: W 24–17 vs BAL, L 27–35 vs LV, L 24–45 vs ATL. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -1.5 vs -1.5 (0.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
CLE3-2-0@
NYJ2-3-0WIN PROBABILITYNYJ 55.6%FINAL / MODEL12–17 / 18.6–20.6POINT SPREADCLE · 52.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.1%TOP PICKNYJ55.6%
CLE3-2-0@NYJ2-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CLE 18.6—NYJ 20.6
MONEYLINE
NYJ WIN (55.6%)
MODELNYJ -135
SPORTSBOOKNYJ -135
✓ WONSPREAD
CLE +1.9 (52.2%)
MODEL+1.9
SPORTSBOOKCLE +2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 39.2 (51.1%)
MODEL39.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 39.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYJ is at home. The model favors NYJ at 55.6% and projects CLE 18.6–NYJ 20.6. Key injuries: Adonai Mitchell (WR, out), Tylan Wallace (WR, out), Dylan Parham (G, out), Kiko Mauigoa (LB, out). CLE last 3: W 23–19 vs TB, W 21–18 vs CAR, W 27–24 vs PIT. NYJ last 3: L 17–20 vs GB, L 24–31 vs DET, L 12–23 vs CHI. Weather: 61°F, gusts 8 mph, precipitation 75%; model total adjustment -0.6. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.9 vs +2.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.0Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.6 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
IND2-3-0@
PIT3-2-0WIN PROBABILITYPIT 59.3%FINAL / MODEL22–34 / 20.2–23.1POINT SPREADIND · 48.5%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.7%TOP PICKPIT59.3%
IND2-3-0@PIT3-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
IND 20.2—PIT 23.1
MONEYLINE
PIT WIN (59.3%)
MODELPIT -148
SPORTSBOOKPIT -148
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 43.3 (50.7%)
MODEL43.3
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 43.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
IND +2.9 (48.5%)
MODEL+2.9
SPORTSBOOKIND +3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PIT is at home. The model favors PIT at 59.3% and projects IND 20.2–PIT 23.1. Key injuries: Jamel Dean (CB, out), Darius Slayton (WR, out), Jaylon Carlies (LB, out), Jalen Ramsey (CB, questionable). IND last 3: L 30–33 vs KC, W 19–17 vs HOU, W 30–13 vs WSH. PIT last 3: L 3–20 vs NE, W 30–27 vs CIN, L 24–27 vs CLE. Weather: 61°F, gusts 15 mph, precipitation 49%; model total adjustment -0.4. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.9 vs +3.0 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.4 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 12:00 PM CDT
NYG3-1-1@
WSH1-3-1WIN PROBABILITYWSH 61.0%FINAL / MODEL27–27 / 19.0–22.2POINT SPREADNYG · 51.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.9%TOP PICKWSH61.0%
NYG3-1-1@WSH1-3-1LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYG 19.0—WSH 22.2
MONEYLINE
WSH WIN (61.0%)
MODELWSH -185
SPORTSBOOKWSH -185
— PUSHSPREAD
NYG +3.2 (51.1%)
MODEL+3.2
SPORTSBOOKNYG +3.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 41.2 (50.9%)
MODEL41.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
WSH is at home. The model favors WSH at 61.0% and projects NYG 19.0–WSH 22.2. Key injuries: Charles Omenihu (DE, out), Tyler Owens (S, out), Jason Pinnock (S, out), Terry McLaurin (WR, questionable). NYG last 3: L 6–28 vs LAR, W 12–7 vs TEN, W 36–24 vs ARI. WSH last 3: L 20–37 vs DAL, W 33–31 vs SEA, L 13–30 vs IND. Weather: 63°F, gusts 17 mph, precipitation 49%; model total adjustment -0.6. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.2 vs +3.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.2Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.6 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 3:05 PM CDT
DEN3-2-0@LAC0-5-0WIN PROBABILITYDEN 59.5%FINAL / MODEL23–17 / 22.4–19.4POINT SPREADLAC · 52.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.2%TOP PICKDEN59.5%
DEN3-2-0@LAC0-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DEN 22.4—LAC 19.4
MONEYLINE
DEN WIN (59.5%)
MODELDEN -185
SPORTSBOOKDEN -185
✓ WONSPREAD
LAC +2.9 (52.4%)
MODEL+2.9
SPORTSBOOKLAC +3.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 41.8 (51.2%)
MODEL41.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAC is at home. The model favors DEN at 59.5% and projects DEN 22.4–LAC 19.4. Key injuries: Riley Moss (CB, out), Pat Surtain II (CB, out), Jonathon Cooper (LB, out), Ladd McConkey (WR, questionable). DEN last 3: W 20–13 vs JAX, W 30–26 vs LAR, L 14–24 vs SF. LAC last 3: L 14–26 vs LV, L 16–24 vs BUF, L 23–30 vs SEA. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.9 vs -3.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDTDET3-2-0@
ARI1-4-0WIN PROBABILITYDET 68.4%FINAL / MODEL45–21 / 29.5–24.3POINT SPREADARI · 51.0%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.2%TOP PICKDET68.4%
DET3-2-0@ARI1-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DET 29.5—ARI 24.3
MONEYLINE
DET WIN (68.4%)
MODELDET -258
SPORTSBOOKDET -258
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 53.8 (52.2%)
MODEL53.8
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 54.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
ARI +5.2 (51.0%)
MODEL+5.2
SPORTSBOOKARI +5.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ARI is at home. The model favors DET at 68.4% and projects DET 29.5–ARI 24.3. Key injuries: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, out), Rock Ya-Sin (CB, out), Andrew Wingard (S, out), Ben Bartch (G, out). DET last 3: L 31–41 vs BUF, W 31–24 vs NYJ, L 26–32 vs CAR. ARI last 3: L 7–31 vs SEA, L 30–36 vs SF, L 24–36 vs NYG. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -5.2 vs -5.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 3:25 PM CDT
SF5-0-0@
SEA3-2-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 59.4%FINAL / MODEL32–29 / 21.8–24.6POINT SPREADSF · 48.7%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.4%TOP PICKSEA59.4%
SF5-0-0@SEA3-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
SF 21.8—SEA 24.6
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (59.4%)
MODELSEA -166
SPORTSBOOKSEA -166
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 46.4 (50.4%)
MODEL46.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
SF +2.9 (48.7%)
MODEL+2.9
SPORTSBOOKSF +3.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SEA is at home. The model favors SEA at 59.4% and projects SF 21.8–SEA 24.6. Key injuries: Nick Bosa (DE, out), Chazz Surratt (LB, out), James Thompson Jr. (DT, out), Marques Sigle (S, out). SF last 3: W 35–13 vs MIA, W 36–30 vs ARI, W 24–14 vs DEN. SEA last 3: W 31–7 vs ARI, L 31–33 vs WSH, W 30–23 vs LAC. Weather: 57°F, gusts 18 mph; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +2.9 vs +3.0 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 11, 7:20 PM CDT
BAL4-1-0@ATL2-3-0WIN PROBABILITYATL 67.9%FINAL / MODEL30–23 / 19.4–24.4POINT SPREADATL · 56.4%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.8%TOP PICKATL67.9%
BAL4-1-0@ATL2-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BAL 19.4—ATL 24.4
MONEYLINE
ATL WIN (67.9%)
MODELATL -175
SPORTSBOOKATL -175
✕ LOSTSPREAD
ATL -5.0 (56.4%)
MODEL-5.0
SPORTSBOOKATL -3.0
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 43.8 (50.8%)
MODEL43.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ATL is at home. The model favors ATL at 67.9% and projects BAL 19.4–ATL 24.4. Key injuries: Lamar Jackson (QB, out), Za'Darius Smith (DE, out), Cam Jurgens (C, out), Trey Hendrickson (LB, out). BAL last 3: L 17–24 vs NO, W 34–31 vs DAL, W 24–18 vs TEN. ATL last 3: L 3–34 vs CAR, W 35–14 vs GB, W 45–24 vs NO. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +5.0 vs +3.0 (2.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 2.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +2.5Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+2.5 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET2.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Oct 12, 7:15 PM CDT
BUF4-1-0@
LAR2-3-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 61.4%FINAL / MODEL37–34 / 25.4–28.7POINT SPREADLAR · 49.2%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.6%TOP PICKLAR61.4%
BUF4-1-0@LAR2-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BUF 25.4—LAR 28.7
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (61.4%)
MODELLAR -175
SPORTSBOOKLAR -175
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 54.1 (51.6%)
MODEL54.1
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 54.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
LAR -3.4 (49.2%)
MODEL-3.4
SPORTSBOOKLAR -3.0
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAR is at home. The model favors LAR at 61.4% and projects BUF 25.4–LAR 28.7. Key injuries: Joshua Palmer (WR, out), Ed Oliver (DT, out), Landon Jackson (DE, questionable), Dee Alford (CB, questionable). BUF last 3: W 41–31 vs DET, W 24–16 vs LAC, L 26–29 vs NE. LAR last 3: W 28–6 vs NYG, L 26–30 vs DEN, W 24–20 vs PHI. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.4 vs +3.0 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.4Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.4 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.