1
LARARI at LAR
84.0%LOSS
2
KCLAC at KC
76.6%WIN
3
SFWSH at SF
76.6%WIN
Week Progress14 of 14 final
14 Final0 In Progress0 Upcoming
Predictions Lockedv2.2.0 · 50,000 simulations
MODEL PERFORMANCE
How our picks performed
Win rates exclude pushes · hypothetical $10 per bet
Week 2 uses saved preview selections rather than official locked picks. Results are illustrative; see calculation details for historical pricing assumptions.
Historical coverage: No archived predictions for Week 1; excluded from calculations.
Last Week
Week 5Season to Date
2026 seasonHow are these calculated?
Win % is the historical accuracy of graded model selections: wins divided by wins plus losses, displayed to one decimal place. Pushes and pending bets are excluded. Dollar profit/loss is hypothetical, assuming $10 staked on each selection and saved sportsbook odds where available. Spread and total bets without saved prices use estimated −110 odds; when any selected moneyline price is missing, the dollar result shows N/A rather than inventing a return. Win rate can be positive while the betting strategy loses money.
Week 2 is evaluated using a saved September 18 preview, not verified original locked picks; some games may already have started when that file was created. VegasInsider prices are retrospective reference odds, and unmatched spread and total prices use estimated −110. These returns are hypothetical and should not be interpreted as a live pregame track record.
Some older weeks have only summary results. Those weeks contribute to verified win/loss percentages, but profit is N/A if the individual betting odds are unavailable. A missing weekly Top 3 list is not reconstructed; only archived selections count toward Top 3. Weeks without any archived results are excluded, and the bet-by-bet drilldown displays only saved individual picks.
All Bets includes one moneyline, one spread and one over/under selection per game. Best / Game uses the highest-confidence selection in each game. Top 3 shows the three highest-confidence predictions from each week, regardless of market. Moneyline, Spread and Over/Under show the strongest selection in their respective markets per game. Season to Date totals the available archived weeks. These are modeled hypothetical returns, not actual betting winnings. The toggle changes the primary number, while both measures remain visible.
HISTORICAL SPORTSBOOK ODDSVegasInsider · 2026 Weeks 1–348 archived game lines · spreads, totals, and moneylines
Historical reference quotes from VegasInsider, collected October 13, 2026. These prices were viewed after kickoff and are not verified as the prices available when the model locked its predictions. They do not replace saved betting lines or create missing predictions for Weeks 1–2. Model Performance profit/loss remains based on saved pregame selections.
| Matchup | Spread & price | Over / Under | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB / ATL | GB -4.5 (-112)ATL +4.5 (-108) | Over 43.5 (-105)Under 43.5 (-115) | GB -238ATL +195 |
| DET / NYJ | DET -7 (-115)NYJ +7 (-105) | Over 49.5 (-110)Under 49.5 (-110) | DET -355NYJ +280 |
| IND / HOU | IND +1.5 (-108)HOU -1.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-110)Under 42.5 (-110) | IND +100HOU -120 |
| CLE / CAR | CLE +2.5 (-112)CAR -2.5 (-108) | Over 41.5 (-115)Under 41.5 (-105) | CLE +114CAR -135 |
| MIA / KC | MIA +10 (-112)KC -10 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105)Under 45.5 (-115) | MIA +440KC -600 |
| WSH / SEA | WSH +8.5 (-115)SEA -8.5 (-105) | Over 40.5 (-108)Under 40.5 (-112) | WSH +320SEA -410 |
| JAX / NE | JAX -3 (-102)NE +3 (-118) | Over 46.5 (-115)Under 46.5 (-105) | JAX -155NE +130 |
| BUF / LAC | BUF -7 (-112)LAC +7 (-108) | Over 50.5 (-105)Under 50.5 (-115) | BUF -325LAC +260 |
| PIT / CIN | PIT +3.5 (-118)CIN -3.5 (-102) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | PIT +150CIN -180 |
| NYG / TEN | NYG -2.5 (-110)TEN +2.5 (-110) | Over 37.5 (-112)Under 37.5 (-108) | NYG -130TEN +110 |
| TB / MIN | TB -1.5 (-102)MIN +1.5 (-118) | Over 42.5 (-112)Under 42.5 (-108) | TB -115MIN -105 |
| SF / ARI | SF -7.5 (-110)ARI +7.5 (-110) | Over 48.5 (-105)Under 48.5 (-115) | SF -410ARI +310 |
| DAL / BAL | DAL +3 (-102)BAL -3 (-118) | Over 54.5 (-108)Under 54.5 (-112) | DAL +140BAL -166 |
| NO / LV | NO -4.5 (-105)LV +4.5 (-115) | Over 43.5 (-125)Under 43.5 (+105) | NO -225LV +180 |
| DEN / LAR | DEN -1.5 (-108)LAR +1.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-108)Under 44.5 (-112) | DEN -118LAR -102 |
| CHI / PHI | CHI +3 (-105)PHI -3 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-108)Under 42.5 (-112) | CHI +154PHI -185 |
View Week 2–3 current-model historical replays ↗
Table team order follows VegasInsider, not home/away order. Lines from a later sportsbook snapshot can differ from locked DraftKings lines; do not use a mismatched spread or total to price a historical bet.
THIS WEEK’S TOP PICKS
Week 6 · Ranked by model confidenceHighest-probability model predictions
1
ATL +1.5CHI at ATL
58.1%LOSS
2
CLE +3.0BAL at CLE
57.2%WIN
3
KC -7.5LAC at KC
55.8%WIN
1
UNDER 53.5DAL at GB
54.4%WIN
2
UNDER 52.5CHI at ATL
53.3%LOSS
3
OVER 39.5CAR at PHI
53.2%LOSS
WEEKLY BOARD
14 Games · 14 Locked Predictions
HighestSecondThird
FINALThu, Oct 15, 7:15 PM CDT
SEA3-3-0@
DEN4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYSEA 55.1%FINAL / MODEL14–17 / 22.0–19.4POINT SPREADSEA · 50.3%OVER / UNDEROVER · 52.9%TOP PICKSEA55.1%
SEA3-3-0@DEN4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
SEA 22.0—DEN 19.4
MONEYLINE
SEA WIN (55.1%)
MODELSEA -142
SPORTSBOOKSEA -142
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 41.5 (52.9%)
MODEL41.5
SPORTSBOOKOVER 40.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
SEA -2.6 (50.3%)
MODEL-2.6
SPORTSBOOKSEA -2.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
DEN is at home. The model favors SEA at 55.1% and projects SEA 22.0–DEN 19.4. Key injuries: Pat Surtain II (CB, out), Talanoa Hufanga (S, out), Chazz Surratt (LB, out), Drake Thomas (LB, out). SEA last 3: L 31–33 vs WSH, W 30–23 vs LAC, L 29–32 vs SF. DEN last 3: W 30–26 vs LAR, L 14–24 vs SF, W 23–17 vs LAC. Weather: 54°F, gusts 9 mph, precipitation 20%; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.6 vs -2.5 (0.1-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.1 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.1 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 8:30 AM CDT
HOU2-4-0@
JAX4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYJAX 56.4%FINAL / MODEL34–31 / 19.4–22.6POINT SPREADJAX · 52.7%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.8%TOP PICKJAX56.4%
HOU2-4-0@JAX4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
HOU 19.4—JAX 22.6
MONEYLINE
JAX WIN (56.4%)
MODELJAX -148
SPORTSBOOKJAX -148
✕ LOSTSPREAD
JAX -3.2 (52.7%)
MODEL-3.2
SPORTSBOOKJAX -2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 42.1 (51.8%)
MODEL42.1
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
JAX is at home. The model favors JAX at 56.4% and projects HOU 19.4–JAX 22.6. Key injuries: Montaric Brown (CB, out), Jalen Pitre (S, out), David Montgomery (RB, out), Ja'Marcus Ingram (CB, questionable). HOU last 3: L 17–19 vs IND, L 30–34 vs DAL, W 26–3 vs TEN. JAX last 3: W 35–6 vs NE, W 22–17 vs CIN, W 19–17 vs PHI. Weather: 70°F; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +3.2 vs +2.5 (0.7-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.7 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.2Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.2 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.7 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDTCHI4-2-0@ATL2-4-0WIN PROBABILITYCHI 49.1%FINAL / MODEL31–23 / 25.5–26.0POINT SPREADATL · 58.1%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 53.3%TOP PICKATL58.1%
CHI4-2-0@ATL2-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CHI 25.5—ATL 26.0
SPREAD
ATL -0.5 (58.1%)
MODEL-0.5
SPORTSBOOKATL +1.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 51.5 (53.3%)
MODEL51.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 52.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
CHI WIN (49.1%)
MODELCHI -120
SPORTSBOOKCHI -120
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
ATL is at home. The model favors CHI at 49.1% and projects CHI 25.5–ATL 26.0. Key injuries: Caleb Williams (QB, questionable), C.J. Henderson (CB, out), Keyshaun Elliott (LB, out), Za'Darius Smith (DE, questionable). CHI last 3: W 27–7 vs PHI, W 23–12 vs NYJ, L 7–31 vs GB. ATL last 3: W 35–14 vs GB, W 45–24 vs NO, L 23–30 vs BAL. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +0.5 vs -1.5 (2.0-point gap).
Model vs Market 2.0 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.8Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.8 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET2.0 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
BAL4-2-0@CLE4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYBAL 55.9%FINAL / MODEL10–13 / 20.5–19.9POINT SPREADCLE · 57.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 52.7%TOP PICKCLE57.2%
BAL4-2-0@CLE4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BAL 20.5—CLE 19.9
SPREAD
CLE +0.7 (57.2%)
MODEL+0.7
SPORTSBOOKCLE +3.0
✓ WONMONEYLINE
BAL WIN (55.9%)
MODELBAL -166
SPORTSBOOKBAL -166
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 40.4 (52.7%)
MODEL40.4
SPORTSBOOKOVER 39.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
CLE is at home. The model favors BAL at 55.9% and projects BAL 20.5–CLE 19.9. Key injuries: Lamar Jackson (QB, out), Cam Jurgens (C, out), Teven Jenkins (G, out), Mike Hall Jr. (DT, out). BAL last 3: W 34–31 vs DAL, W 24–18 vs TEN, W 30–23 vs ATL. CLE last 3: W 21–18 vs CAR, W 27–24 vs PIT, L 12–17 vs NYJ. Weather: 59°F, gusts 17 mph; model total adjustment -0.2. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -0.7 vs -3.0 (2.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 2.3 ptsInjury Adjustment +2.5Context Adjustment +0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.2 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+2.5 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET2.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
TEN1-5-0@
IND2-4-0WIN PROBABILITYIND 71.8%FINAL / MODEL26–20 / 18.5–25.3POINT SPREADIND · 51.4%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 52.1%TOP PICKIND71.8%
TEN1-5-0@IND2-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
TEN 18.5—IND 25.3
MONEYLINE
IND WIN (71.8%)
MODELIND -325
SPORTSBOOKIND -325
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 43.8 (52.1%)
MODEL43.8
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 44.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
IND -6.8 (51.4%)
MODEL-6.8
SPORTSBOOKIND -6.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
IND is at home. The model favors IND at 71.8% and projects TEN 18.5–IND 25.3. Key injuries: Ashton Dulin (WR, out), Jaylon Carlies (LB, out), Jordan Elliott (DT, out), Kevin Winston Jr. (S, out). TEN last 3: L 7–12 vs NYG, L 18–24 vs BAL, L 3–26 vs HOU. IND last 3: W 19–17 vs HOU, W 30–13 vs WSH, L 22–34 vs PIT. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +6.8 vs +6.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
NYJ2-4-0@
NE4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYNE 73.8%FINAL / MODEL19–26 / 17.9–25.9POINT SPREADNE · 51.8%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.7%TOP PICKNE73.8%
NYJ2-4-0@NE4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NYJ 17.9—NE 25.9
MONEYLINE
NE WIN (73.8%)
MODELNE -355
SPORTSBOOKNE -355
✓ WONSPREAD
NE -8.0 (51.8%)
MODEL-8.0
SPORTSBOOKNE -7.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 43.8 (50.7%)
MODEL43.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 43.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NE is at home. The model favors NE at 73.8% and projects NYJ 17.9–NE 25.9. Key injuries: Karon Prunty (CB, out), Carlton Davis III (CB, out), Joseph Ossai (DE, out), Adonai Mitchell (WR, out). NYJ last 3: L 24–31 vs DET, L 12–23 vs CHI, W 17–12 vs CLE. NE last 3: L 6–35 vs JAX, W 29–26 vs BUF, W 45–17 vs LV. Weather: 52°F, gusts 6 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.0 vs +7.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
NO2-4-0@
NYG3-2-1WIN PROBABILITYNYG 50.3%FINAL / MODEL34–27 / 22.3–24.2POINT SPREADNYG · 51.8%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.3%TOP PICKNYG51.8%
NO2-4-0@NYG3-2-1LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
NO 22.3—NYG 24.2
SPREAD
NYG -1.9 (51.8%)
MODEL-1.9
SPORTSBOOKNYG -1.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
NYG WIN (50.3%)
MODELNYG -112
SPORTSBOOKNYG -112
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 46.5 (50.3%)
MODEL46.5
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 46.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
NYG is at home. The model favors NYG at 50.3% and projects NO 22.3–NYG 24.2. Key injuries: Colton Hood (CB, out), Tyler Nubin (S, out), Anfernee Jennings (LB, out), Kaden Elliss (LB, out). NO last 3: L 27–35 vs LV, L 24–45 vs ATL, L 13–23 vs MIN. NYG last 3: W 12–7 vs TEN, W 36–24 vs ARI, T 27–27 vs WSH. Weather: 57°F, gusts 7 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.9 vs +1.5 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment 0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDTCAR3-2-0@
PHI2-4-0WIN PROBABILITYCAR 58.6%FINAL / MODEL25–14 / 22.0–18.6POINT SPREADCAR · 49.9%OVER / UNDEROVER · 53.2%TOP PICKCAR58.6%
CAR3-2-0@PHI2-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
CAR 22.0—PHI 18.6
MONEYLINE
CAR WIN (58.6%)
MODELCAR -166
SPORTSBOOKCAR -166
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 40.6 (53.2%)
MODEL40.6
SPORTSBOOKOVER 39.5
✕ LOSTSPREAD
CAR -3.4 (49.9%)
MODEL-3.4
SPORTSBOOKCAR -3.0
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
PHI is at home. The model favors CAR at 58.6% and projects CAR 22.0–PHI 18.6. Key injuries: Monroe Freeling (OT, doubtful), Taylor Moton (OT, questionable), Tershawn Wharton (DT, questionable), Damien Lewis (G, questionable). CAR last 3: W 34–3 vs ATL, L 18–21 vs CLE, W 32–26 vs DET. PHI last 3: L 7–27 vs CHI, L 20–24 vs LAR, L 17–19 vs JAX. Weather: 56°F, gusts 10 mph; model total adjustment 0.0. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -3.4 vs -3.0 (0.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.4Context Adjustment -0.5Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.4 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.5 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM CDT
PIT4-2-0@
TB1-5-0WIN PROBABILITYPIT 55.4%FINAL / MODEL26–19 / 20.5–18.3POINT SPREADTB · 51.2%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.0%TOP PICKPIT55.4%
PIT4-2-0@TB1-5-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
PIT 20.5—TB 18.3
MONEYLINE
PIT WIN (55.4%)
MODELPIT -148
SPORTSBOOKPIT -148
✓ WONSPREAD
TB +2.2 (51.2%)
MODEL+2.2
SPORTSBOOKTB +2.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
OVER 38.8 (51.0%)
MODEL38.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 38.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
TB is at home. The model favors PIT at 55.4% and projects PIT 20.5–TB 18.3. Key injuries: Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, out), Benjamin Morrison (CB, doubtful), Jalen Ramsey (CB, questionable), Jamel Dean (CB, questionable). PIT last 3: W 30–27 vs CIN, L 24–27 vs CLE, W 34–22 vs IND. TB last 3: L 16–23 vs MIN, L 14–17 vs GB, W 24–16 vs DAL. Weather: 77°F, gusts 23 mph; model total adjustment -0.8. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -2.2 vs -2.5 (0.3-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.3 ptsInjury Adjustment -0.1Context Adjustment +0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.8 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES-0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.3 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 3:05 PM CDT
ARI2-4-0@LAR2-4-0WIN PROBABILITYLAR 84.0%FINAL / MODEL18–16 / 20.1–31.4POINT SPREADARI · 54.9%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 50.4%TOP PICKLAR84.0%
ARI2-4-0@LAR2-4-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
ARI 20.1—LAR 31.4
MONEYLINE
LAR WIN (84.0%)
MODELLAR -800
SPORTSBOOKLAR -800
✕ LOSTSPREAD
ARI +11.3 (54.9%)
MODEL+11.3
SPORTSBOOKARI +12.5
✓ WONTOTAL
UNDER 51.4 (50.4%)
MODEL51.4
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 51.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LAR is at home. The model favors LAR at 84.0% and projects ARI 20.1–LAR 31.4. Key injuries: Andrew Wingard (S, out), Trent McDuffie (CB, questionable), Kam Curl (S, questionable), Kitan Crawford (S, questionable). ARI last 3: L 30–36 vs SF, L 24–36 vs NYG, L 21–45 vs DET. LAR last 3: L 26–30 vs DEN, W 24–20 vs PHI, L 34–37 vs BUF. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +11.3 vs +12.5 (1.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment -0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.1 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
LAC0-6-0@KC5-0-0WIN PROBABILITYKC 76.6%FINAL / MODEL6–22 / 16.4–25.3POINT SPREADKC · 55.8%OVER / UNDEROVER · 50.4%TOP PICKKC76.6%
LAC0-6-0@KC5-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
LAC 16.4—KC 25.3
MONEYLINE
KC WIN (76.6%)
MODELKC -425
SPORTSBOOKKC -425
✓ WONSPREAD
KC -8.9 (55.8%)
MODEL-8.9
SPORTSBOOKKC -7.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 41.7 (50.4%)
MODEL41.7
SPORTSBOOKOVER 41.5
✕ LOSTWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
KC is at home. The model favors KC at 76.6% and projects LAC 16.4–KC 25.3. Key injuries: Josh Simmons (OT, out), Rashee Rice (WR, out), Donte Jackson (CB, out), Derwin James Jr. (S, out). LAC last 3: L 16–24 vs BUF, L 23–30 vs SEA, L 17–23 vs DEN. KC last 3: W 33–30 vs IND, W 24–10 vs MIA, W 30–27 vs LV. Weather: 67°F, gusts 23 mph; model total adjustment -0.8. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.9 vs +7.5 (1.4-point gap).
Model vs Market 1.4 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment +0.6Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.8 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET1.4 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.6 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 3:25 PM CDT
BUF5-1-0@
LV3-3-0WIN PROBABILITYBUF 66.8%FINAL / MODEL33–30 / 29.4–24.5POINT SPREADLV · 52.6%OVER / UNDEROVER · 51.4%TOP PICKBUF66.8%
BUF5-1-0@LV3-3-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
BUF 29.4—LV 24.5
MONEYLINE
BUF WIN (66.8%)
MODELBUF -258
SPORTSBOOKBUF -258
✓ WONSPREAD
LV +4.9 (52.6%)
MODEL+4.9
SPORTSBOOKLV +5.5
✓ WONTOTAL
OVER 53.8 (51.4%)
MODEL53.8
SPORTSBOOKOVER 53.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
LV is at home. The model favors BUF at 66.8% and projects BUF 29.4–LV 24.5. Key injuries: Tonka Hemingway (DT, out), Trey Zuhn III (C, questionable), Dee Alford (CB, questionable), Joshua Palmer (WR, questionable). BUF last 3: W 24–16 vs LAC, L 26–29 vs NE, W 37–34 vs LAR. LV last 3: W 35–27 vs NO, L 27–30 vs KC, L 17–45 vs NE. Weather is not a material factor in this indoor game. Model vs sportsbook point difference: -4.9 vs -5.5 (0.6-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.6 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.1Context Adjustment +0.3Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHERMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.6 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT+0.3 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALSun, Oct 18, 7:20 PM CDT
DAL2-4-0@GB4-2-0WIN PROBABILITYGB 50.2%FINAL / MODEL13–23 / 25.4–26.7POINT SPREADDAL · 50.7%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 54.4%TOP PICKUNDER 53.554.4%
DAL2-4-0@GB4-2-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
DAL 25.4—GB 26.7
TOTAL
UNDER 52.0 (54.4%)
MODEL52.0
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 53.5
✓ WONSPREAD
DAL +1.3 (50.7%)
MODEL+1.3
SPORTSBOOKDAL +1.5
✕ LOSTMONEYLINE
GB WIN (50.2%)
MODELGB -115
SPORTSBOOKGB -115
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
GB is at home. The model favors GB at 50.2% and projects DAL 25.4–GB 26.7. Key injuries: Drew Shelton (OT, out), Cobie Durant (CB, out), DeMarvion Overshown (LB, out), Savion Williams (WR, questionable). DAL last 3: L 31–34 vs BAL, W 34–30 vs HOU, L 16–24 vs TB. GB last 3: L 14–35 vs ATL, W 17–14 vs TB, W 31–7 vs CHI. Weather: 54°F, gusts 22 mph; model total adjustment -0.7. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +1.3 vs +1.5 (0.2-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.2 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.4Context Adjustment -0.2Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.7 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIES+0.4 margin impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.2 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXT-0.2 margin impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.
FINALMon, Oct 19, 7:15 PM CDT
WSH1-4-1@SF6-0-0WIN PROBABILITYSF 76.6%FINAL / MODEL17–23 / 22.1–30.1POINT SPREADSF · 52.0%OVER / UNDERUNDER · 51.1%TOP PICKSF76.6%
WSH1-4-1@SF6-0-0LOCKED MODEL PREDICTION
WSH 22.1—SF 30.1
MONEYLINE
SF WIN (76.6%)
MODELSF -455
SPORTSBOOKSF -455
✓ WONSPREAD
SF -8.0 (52.0%)
MODEL-8.0
SPORTSBOOKSF -7.5
✕ LOSTTOTAL
UNDER 52.2 (51.1%)
MODEL52.2
SPORTSBOOKUNDER 52.5
✓ WONWHY THE MODEL LIKES THIS PREDICTION
SF is at home. The model favors SF at 76.6% and projects WSH 22.1–SF 30.1. Key injuries: Nick Bosa (DE, out), Charles Omenihu (DE, out), Marques Sigle (S, out), Javontae Jean-Baptiste (LB, out). WSH last 3: W 33–31 vs SEA, L 13–30 vs IND, T 27–27 vs NYG. SF last 3: W 36–30 vs ARI, W 24–14 vs DEN, W 32–29 vs SEA. Weather: 66°F, gusts 18 mph; model total adjustment -0.3. Model vs sportsbook point difference: +8.0 vs +7.5 (0.5-point gap).
Model vs Market 0.5 ptsInjury Adjustment +0.0Context Adjustment -0.0Simulations 50,000
☁︎
WEATHER-0.3 total-point impactLocked pregame adjustment
✚
INJURIESMinimal model impactLocked pregame adjustment
↗
MODEL VS MARKET0.5 point differenceModel margin vs captured line
◎
CONTEXTMinimal model impactLocked game-context adjustment
The explanation uses values stored with the locked prediction. It does not change because of live or final game information.